Many experts believe that there are still many challenges to be solved so that the widespread adoption of autonomous and driverless cars can become a reality and they predict a somewhat slow transition over the coming decades.
Others, however, believe that autonomous cars will be standard in 2025 and that they will have replaced almost all current vehicles by 2030. This would be a radical change capable of eclipsing any other innovation experienced by our society.
What will the transition be like
The development has already begun and could be completed by 2020
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motor, Tesla models will be able to drive autonomously 90% of the time.
According to Bloomberg News, the Cadillac that will present General Motors in 2017 will be able to take control of the steering, acceleration, and braking at both highway speeds and traffic jams.
And both Google and Tesla predict that entirely autonomous cars – those that Musk describes as those in which we could get into the car, go to sleep and wake up when we reach our destination – will be available to the public in 2020.
In this video you can see one of the prototypes of Google driving autonomously:
It Could Happen Faster Than Expected
Industry experts believe that the purchase of autonomous vehicles by consumers will be slow. However, this does not have to prevent or stop the transition, since:
Consumers have been favorable to the change: recent studies indicate that consumers would be happy to use free cars if they were available. According to a survey conducted in the USA:
60% of adults surveyed said they would travel in a self-driving car.
And about 32% said they would stop driving as soon as they can have an autonomous vehicle.
Vehicles owned could be significantly reduced in favor of modern vehicle sharing services: a study by Morgan Stanley indicates that we only drive 4% of the year. Very little time for such a high expense, if we take into account the price of vehicles, insurance, maintenance costs, etc.
It is not surprising that the various vehicle sharing services that have been emerging on the Internet, such as Uber or Blablacar, gain followers every day in many countries.
For someone who lives in a city and does not drive regularly, it is much cheaper to share a vehicle when you need it than to own one.
Uber has confirmed that it will adopt the new vehicles: its CEO, Travis Kalanick, has recently stated that Uber will replace all its cars with other autonomous vehicles as soon as possible.